2012年12月5日星期三

Shinzo Abe save Janpanese economy?

Ten years in Japan do not hear any good news, especially after last year's East Japan earthquake. Originally, the economy has been sluggish for twenty years, the series appeared in the four-month international trade balance deficit more people the feeling of despair on the prospects for Japan's economy.
Japanese explain why Japan's economy will slump most common reason is that "the yen is too high so that the companies can not be profitable." So when the appreciation of the yen, Japan, the stock market is certainly lower, the stock market was higher to the yen lower, The only exception is the mid-1990s when the yen, the trinity of bonds and the stock market falling at the same time, it is astronomical bad debts to Japanese financial authorities since the bursting of the bubble economy of the Japanese financial system is very fragile, Japanese financial authorities the bad debt problem is basically in the era of Junichiro Koizumi has been resolved, so start normal connection of the yen and the stock market is going in the opposite direction of each other.
Often have a lot of variation in the euro exchange rate of the yen against the U.S. dollar, one percent is common, the exchange rate of Japanese companies operating does have a great impact in the day beating. Rising yen's impact on corporate earnings is mainly manifested in two ways, the first is the yen's appreciation will bring the prices of Japanese products on overseas markets and thus weaken the price competitiveness of Japanese products, such as 100 yen to one U.S. dollar the exchange rate, a 2 million yen vehicles sell $ 20,000 when the exchange rate rose to 80 yen, the car is necessary $ 25,000. This case can also transfer production base, as close as possible to market the country to solve the production cost, but the transfer of production bases can only solve the cost problem, not solve the negative effects of the appreciation of the yen on the profits generated. Such as a company in foreign sales income of one hundred million U.S. dollars in the exchange rate of 100 yen is equivalent to 10 billion yen, but if the exchange rate becomes 80, this sales revenue has become 8 billion yen, 20 one hundred million yen so suddenly disappear!
Annual plans of the major Japanese companies have a very important indicator on the expected exchange rate, the expected exchange rate and the deviation of the actual exchange rate is largely about the company's revenue, and sometimes even a matter of survival. Take the Toyota company, it uses the expected exchange rate is the exchange rate of the real exchange rate plans published minus one, because the yen has been hovering in some time ago in the U.S. dollar was 80 yen level, so the 2013 Toyota uses envisioned The exchange rate is 79.
But the real exchange rate in the foreign exchange market these days down to 82.
Do not know the exchange rate can last much longer, if able to maintain a little longer, then, it is definitely good news for Toyota, the exchange rate of one yen lower to Toyota throughout the year to increase to 40 billion yen (about five hundred million dollars) in profits, if the exchange rate of the 82 to adhere to the end of next year, then to light a Toyota company earnings will increase to $ 1.5 billion.
Japanese media these days is hard to come by, have a point of live gas, to know that the yen exchange rate fell down to about 3%, the stock market reacted immediately, the stock value go up is a very natural reaction.
There are two main reasons for the yen fell and stock appreciation, said the first reason is also interesting, actually is Japan's trade deficit. After the economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, the Japanese economy has been sluggish, and has not been in the economic crisis is a financial crisis, but the strange thing is in addition to the mid-1990s, in a short period of time the yen has almost always maintained a strong upward momentum, and Japan's economic performance seems to be very in tune. In fact, Japan's economic crisis and not as depicted so profound, in fact, Japan has maintained a foreign trade black lettering, but the way that a large part of the black and is hidden up the transfer of production bases to foreign, so although GDP is like to be frozen forty years like almost no change, but the unemployment rate is still very low, not see an economic crisis of Europe and the United States to the streets crowded with unemployed people as the scene did not have much of a substantial reduction in the standard of living of the Japanese, income from the statistical data is reduced, but the prices are at the same time reduced. The basic reason behind the long-term strength of the yen is trading in black trade disappearance of black makes reduced the trust for the yen, the yen fell it began.
Another reason is promising to be a reference to the Bank of Japan (Japan's central bank, the equivalent of China's People's Bank of China) to implement unlimited financial easing "in the policy agenda of the next Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has even proposed Bank of Japan directly accept construction bonds to achieve year-on-year inflation rate of 3% in order to get rid of the status quo of deflation. This further makes people doubt the yen credit, but also a lot of factors that trigger the yen lower. This economic practices in Japan is also a controversial subject, support and opposing views have.
These two reasons for making this yen fell with uncertainty, if the trade deficit and the yen completely become a complementary relationship, Japan's economic problems are not completely resolved, at best, to finally be able to eke out the trade balance . The second reason is even more full of unknowns, and in the early postwar period, Japan had indeed been dominated by the view that inflation Okura bureaucrats economic recovery, but the elite bureaucracy in Japan no longer dominate, dominate quality low of elected politicians, so now not 60 years ago, Shinzo Abe this prescription to cure the disease, Japan does not look likely.

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