Ten years in Japan do not hear any good news, especially after last year's East Japan earthquake. Originally,
the economy has been sluggish for twenty years, the series appeared in
the four-month international trade balance deficit more people the
feeling of despair on the prospects for Japan's economy.
Japanese explain why Japan's economy will slump most
common reason is that "the yen is too high so that the companies can not
be profitable." So when the appreciation of the yen, Japan, the stock
market is certainly lower, the stock market was higher to the yen lower,
The only exception is the mid-1990s when the yen, the trinity of bonds
and the stock market falling at the same time, it is astronomical bad
debts to Japanese financial authorities since the bursting of the bubble
economy of the Japanese financial system is very fragile, Japanese
financial authorities the bad debt problem is basically in the era of
Junichiro Koizumi has been resolved, so start normal connection of the
yen and the stock market is going in the opposite direction of each
other.
Often have a lot of variation in the euro exchange rate
of the yen against the U.S. dollar, one percent is common, the exchange
rate of Japanese companies operating does have a great impact in the day
beating. Rising yen's impact on corporate earnings is
mainly manifested in two ways, the first is the yen's appreciation will
bring the prices of Japanese products on overseas markets and thus
weaken the price competitiveness of Japanese products, such as 100 yen
to one U.S. dollar the exchange rate, a 2 million yen vehicles sell $ 20,000 when the exchange rate rose to 80 yen, the car is necessary $ 25,000. This
case can also transfer production base, as close as possible to market
the country to solve the production cost, but the transfer of production
bases can only solve the cost problem, not solve the negative effects
of the appreciation of the yen on the profits generated. Such
as a company in foreign sales income of one hundred million U.S.
dollars in the exchange rate of 100 yen is equivalent to 10 billion yen,
but if the exchange rate becomes 80, this sales revenue has become 8
billion yen, 20 one hundred million yen so suddenly disappear!
Annual plans of the major Japanese companies have a very
important indicator on the expected exchange rate, the expected exchange
rate and the deviation of the actual exchange rate is largely about the
company's revenue, and sometimes even a matter of survival. Take the Toyota
company, it uses the expected exchange rate is the exchange rate of the
real exchange rate plans published minus one, because the yen has been
hovering in some time ago in the U.S. dollar was 80 yen level, so the
2013 Toyota uses envisioned The exchange rate is 79.
But the real exchange rate in the foreign exchange market these days down to 82.
Do not know the exchange rate can last much longer, if
able to maintain a little longer, then, it is definitely good news for
Toyota, the exchange rate of one yen lower to Toyota throughout the year
to increase to 40 billion yen (about five hundred million dollars) in
profits, if the exchange rate of the 82 to adhere to the end of next
year, then to light a Toyota company earnings will increase to $ 1.5
billion.
Japanese media these days is hard to come by, have a
point of live gas, to know that the yen exchange rate fell down to about
3%, the stock market reacted immediately, the stock value go up is a
very natural reaction.
There are two main reasons for the yen fell and stock
appreciation, said the first reason is also interesting, actually is
Japan's trade deficit. After the economic bubble burst in
the early 1990s, the Japanese economy has been sluggish, and has not
been in the economic crisis is a financial crisis, but the strange thing
is in addition to the mid-1990s, in a short period of time the yen has
almost always maintained a strong upward momentum, and Japan's economic
performance seems to be very in tune. In fact, Japan's
economic crisis and not as depicted so profound, in fact, Japan has
maintained a foreign trade black lettering, but the way that a large
part of the black and is hidden up the transfer of production bases to
foreign, so although GDP is like to be frozen forty years like almost no
change, but the unemployment rate is still very low, not see an
economic crisis of Europe and the United States to the streets crowded
with unemployed people as the scene did not have much of a substantial
reduction in the standard of living of the Japanese, income from the
statistical data is reduced, but the prices are at the same time
reduced. The basic reason behind the long-term strength of
the yen is trading in black trade disappearance of black makes reduced
the trust for the yen, the yen fell it began.
Another reason is promising to be a reference to the Bank
of Japan (Japan's central bank, the equivalent of China's People's Bank
of China) to implement unlimited financial easing "in the policy agenda
of the next Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has even proposed Bank
of Japan directly accept construction bonds to achieve year-on-year
inflation rate of 3% in order to get rid of the status quo of deflation.
This further makes people doubt the yen credit, but also a lot of factors that trigger the yen lower. This economic practices in Japan is also a controversial subject, support and opposing views have.
These two reasons for making this yen fell with
uncertainty, if the trade deficit and the yen completely become a
complementary relationship, Japan's economic problems are not completely
resolved, at best, to finally be able to eke out the trade balance . The
second reason is even more full of unknowns, and in the early postwar
period, Japan had indeed been dominated by the view that inflation Okura
bureaucrats economic recovery, but the elite bureaucracy in Japan no
longer dominate, dominate quality low of elected politicians, so now not
60 years ago, Shinzo Abe this prescription to cure the disease, Japan
does not look likely.
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